Public Opinion And Polling Essay
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Americans are showing signs of disaffection with a
presidential campaign that is just beginning. The public
thinks the press and large campaign contributors are
having too much influence on who gets nominated,
and a 60% majority thinks voters themselves have too
little say.
The latest Federal Election Commission, conducted
on the heels of protracted controversy about coverage
of alleged cocaine use by George W. Bush, found
public reservations about news coverage of most
"character issues" ranging from youthful drug use to
psychological counseling. The poll also shows only a
53% majority of Americans now saying that press scrutiny of political candidates is worth it and a
plurality rating political coverage as only fair or poor.
The response of the public is to tune out. Few are paying close attention to campaign news, while at
the same time an increasing number of people think the press is overcovering the campaigns. Not
surprisingly in this light, many Americans cannot even name a single candidate for the two parties'
nominations. Fully 37% of Federal Election Commission's respondents could not offer up the name of a GOP candidate, and
even more -- 50% -- could not name a Democratic candidate, without prompting.
Public inattention to the campaign is about the only hopeful sign in this survey for Al Gore's
candidacy. Opinion about the vice president is not improving. As in other recent nationwide surveys,
Gore continues to lag behind Bush in the general election matchup. This poll also shows his support
for the Democratic nomination softening.
These are the principal findings of a September 1-12, 1999,
Pew Research Center nationwide telephone poll of 1,205
adults. The allowance for sampling error and other random
effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
More Uncertainty Among Democrats
With Bill Bradley now formally in the race for the
Democratic nomination, support for Gore as the party's
nominee has slipped, especially among Independents who
lean Democratic. The latest survey finds 58% of all
Democrats and Independents who lean Democratic saying
they would like to see Gore become the nominee -- down
from 65% in July. But the vice president's support has
tumbled more among Independent Democrats who now
divide their loyalties about equally between Bradley and
Gore. In July, they favored Gore to Bradley -- 61% to 33%. As well as helping Bradley, Gore's
declining support has created uncertainty among Democratic voters. The percent of Democrats who
say they won't vote for either or are undecided has nearly doubled since July -- 6% then to 10% now.
Gore's personal image remains largely unchanged, as he is not penetrating the public's consciousness.
Remarkably, less than half (46%) of the public and only 50% of Democrats can even come up with
Gore's name when asked to name Democrats running for their party's nomination. As to image, the
same number of Americans describe Gore in positive terms as did in April (20% vs. 19%). Still
nearly as many use words which, while not necessarily negative, poke fun at the vice president, such
as "boring," "stiff" or "dull."
Big Bush Lead
Bush's lead over Gore in the presidential horse race
remains firm, just as Gore's support from within his own
party has begun to show signs of weakening. Bush now
leads Gore among registered voters in a hypothetical
matchup by 54% to 39%.
At this early stage, Bush's big lead over Gore does not
appear vulnerable to a third party challenge from Pat
Buchanan. However, in a closer race a Reform Party bid
by the conservative commentator might mean trouble for
Bush. Currently, Bush runs nearly as strong in a
hypothetical three-way matchup as he does in the
two-way contest with Gore. When choosing among Bush,
Gore, and Pat Buchanan as a Reform Party candidate,
fully 49% of registered voters prefer Bush; 35% would vote for Gore and 10% opt for Buchanan.
However, more Bush supporters than Gore voters migrate to Buchanan. Of those registered voters
who choose Buchanan in the three-way contest, 62% chose Bush in a two-way match up; only 30%
chose Gore.
Within his party Bush maintains his big lead in popular support for the GOP nomination. When asked
in an open-ended format to name any of the Republican presidential contenders, fully 54% of
Americans and six-in-ten Republicans can identify Bush. Only 16% of the public and 22% of
Republicans can name Elizabeth Dole. The names of the rest of the field are recalled by about 10%
of Republicans or fewer.
Bush is the first choice nominee of 56% of Republicans and Independents who lean Republican, and
21% say he is their second choice. These numbers are largely unchanged from...
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