Unemployment Essay
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With a decade of falling unemployment behind us, memories fade as to what actually happens during recessions. Those who have been working for a decade or less have never experienced a recession. It hurts.
Forty years later, I can still remember being fired at age 22 from a summer job in a copper smelter when the demand for copper turned down.
It was not a serious blow economically, but I can recall every detail. While there was no reason to be embarrassed, I was ashamed to tell my parents that I had been fired, even though lots of other people were fired at the same time.
On the other side of the table, it also hurts. The only people who think that firing people is easy are those who have never done it. As a dean at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, firing people was the hardest thing I did. It keeps you awake at night.
There are a lot of layoff numbers being tossed around in the news these days, but no one ever puts a face on those numbers. They are old, and they are young. They are dads and moms. They are brothers and sisters.
In more impersonal terms, unemployment is what economists call a lagging indicator. If the gross domestic product goes down, unemployment will rise, but it takes a few months. Officially, unemployment numbers are up only slightly; in fact, the latest numbers show that the U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 4.2% during February. The big increases lie ahead of us. There is a lag time because firms delay layoffs to see whether the downturn is real and long lasting.
That's because layoffs are painful and costly. There are innumerable reasons they should be avoided if possible: Severance payments must be made. Higher training costs lie ahead. The skilled members of the team whom a firm has laid off will not be there to be rehired when times get better. Morale suffers among the remaining workers, and fewer will be willing to make personal sacrifices to help the company when it needs it most.
But you don't have to wait to be a victim of the downturn. In fact, the best workers often simply bail out -- and they should. For skilled, ambitious workers it pays to take another job in a growing company where opportunities for promotion are greater, rather than wait for the market for your current company's products to turn around. For workers, the economic costs are also a lot higher than simply the amount of money lost while one is unemployed and looking for a new job. And age, invariably, is an overriding factor in your prospects:
* Older workers. Anyone involuntarily laid off over the age of 55 is going to find it difficult to find re-employment. Firms don't want to incur the higher pension and health-care costs that go with older workers, and they would prefer to train people that potentially could be with them for longer periods of time. Very few older workers are going to find new jobs as good as those they lost. For...
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