2000 Presidential Race Essay

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Jason Bankston

November 6, 2000

Government Research Project

ALABAMA

Recent polls show Bush as leading by 46% with Gore at 38%. Alabama has a strong Republican voting history. Sixty percent of Alabamans view themselves as conservatives. Alabama has few large cities that attract minorities and other groups that would vote Democratic. Bush has a solid win in this state. Nine electoral votes for Bush.

ALASKA

In Alaska, Bush leads with a 52% margin to Gore s 28%. Like Alabama, Alaska has few large cities that attract Democratic votes. What Alaska does have, however, are oil fields which attract big money and Republican votes. Forty-eight percent of Alaskans show an unfavorable opinion toward Al Gore. Bush has a solid victory in Alaska. Three electoral votes for Bush.

ARKANSAS

Bush leads with a narrow margin of 47% to Gore s 45%. However, Arkansas has a slight Democratic voting history. Since it is by such a narrow margin, there is a chance that Gore could regain the lead before Tuesday. But for the moment, Bush is the likely victor. Six electoral votes for Bush.

ARIZONA

With Bush leading the race with 49% to Gore s 37%. Bush is the likely winner in Arizona. Arizona has a marginal Republican voting history. The margin between favorable and unfavorable opinions for Gore (only 4%) is relatively small. While Bush s margin is much larger (15%). In a state with 53% of the people consider themselves conservatives, Bush will likely take the state. Eight electoral votes for Bush.

CALIFORNIA

Gore currently leads California 44% to 41%. In a state with two very large cities, California will generate a large number of Democratic votes. Also, many people in the state are concerned with the environment and will go towards Gore s environmental policy. This is a very tight race. Gore will mostly likely win this state. Fifty-four electoral votes for Bush.

COLORADO

Most polls show Bush as the leader of Colorado with 49% to Gore s 33%. In a state where 56% of the likely voters consider themselves Republicans, the Texas Governor will likely win. Eight electoral votes for Bush.

CONNECTICUT

In a state where more people are adamantly anti-Bush, Gore will likely take the victory with 46% of the vote. This small, but densely populated area, would tend to attract more Democratically oriented votes. In this race, Gore will probably triumph. Eight electoral votes for Gore.

DELAWARE

This is another very close race. Gore leads with 44% to Bush s 43%. Delaware has also shown a very subtle history of voting Democratic. Fewer people show a negative opinion of Gore, than do those that have negative opinions of Bush. Although it is a very close race, Gore will be the likely winner. Three electoral votes for Gore.

FLORIDA

In Florida, Bush leads by a very narrow margin. He holds 47% over Gore s 45%. Since it is such a close race, it is important to look at the state s voting history. The Orange State has shown a moderately strong history of voting Republican. With the numbers being so close, it is hard to accurately judge the likely winner, however, Bush will probably win this state. Twenty-five electoral votes for Bush.

GEORGIA

In a state made up of 55% Conservatives, Bush is carrying the lead with 50% to Gore s 40%. Georgia has shown a history of voting moderately conservative. Georgia s population is made up of a large number of rural farming people. They will be more tempted to go for Bush s tax plan (especially the abomination of the death tax). Bush has a solid win in Georgia. Thirteen electoral votes for Bush.

HAWAII

Hawaii will be a solid Gore victory. Gore leads with 52% to Bush s 32%. Four electoral votes for Gore.

IDAHO

Idaho will be a landslide victory for Bush. He carries 62% to Gore s 24%. Idaho has a history of voting solidly Republican. In this state largely made up of farmers, its citizens will agree more so with Bush s Republican ideals. The number one thing they have to benefit from Bush s election would be the elimination of the estate tax. Bush will definitely win this state. Four electoral votes for Bush.

ILLINOIS

Illinois is a tough state to judge. Illinois has demonstrated a mild history for voting Democratic. However, a large majority of the voters consider themselves Conservatives. Currently Gores carries a four point lead over Bush. In a state with a large and diverse city as Chicago, more Democratic votes would be expected. Gore will likely win this race. Twenty-two electoral votes for Gore.

INDIANA

Indiana should be a solid win for Bush. This state has a reputation for voting more conservatively than most. With such a wide gap between the candidates percentages (52 to 32), it would take severe measures to reverse the outcome of this race. Triumph for Bush. Twelve electoral votes for Bush.

IOWA

Bush should take home the Iowa victory. However, this is a very close race (46% to 42%). In a state largely based on agriculture, its citizens stand to benefit most from Bush s policies (especially his tax policy). Even with such a narrow margin, Bush will be the most likely choice in Iowa. Seven electoral votes for Bush.

KANSAS

Bush carries Kansas with a vote of 51% to Gore s 32%. Kansas has a strong history of voting Republican, and most voters consider themselves Conservatives. Without a doubt, Bush will win this state. Six electoral votes for Bush.

KENTUCKY

In the state of Kentucky, Bush should have no trouble winning. He carries a solid majority (48% to 39%). Kentucky carries a slightly conservative voting record, and more than half of its citizens would call themselves Republicans. It should not be a challenge for Bush to win this state. Eight electoral votes for Bush.

LOUISIANA

Bush is leading the state of Louisiana by a very small margin. He has 48% to the Vice President s 41%. Louisiana has demonstrated the pattern of voting very close to the middle of the road. However, 64% of its people considered themselves largely conservative. Although it is such a close race, Bush should not have much trouble taking Louisiana. Nine electoral votes for Bush.

MAINE

In Maine there is another very close race with Bush leading Gore 43% to 39%. Like many other states, Maine has shown a history of voting slightly liberal, while most citizens consider themselves Conservatives. There is a chance that Gore take the lead, but Bush will probably take this state. Four electoral votes for Bush.

MARYLAND

This state will be a win for Gore. He is currently carrying a 47% majority. In Maryland Bush s disapproval rating is actually higher that his approval rating. This state has shown a mild history for voting for Democratic candidates, so Gore should win. Ten electoral votes for Gore.

MASSACHUSETTS

This state is an easy victory for Gore. He leads 49% to Bush s 28%. The state has shown a strong style of voting for the Democratic candidate. And, most of the people show a strong dislike for Bush. Leading with such a large gap, it is extremely unlikely that Bush will gain the majority. Twelve electoral votes for Gore.

MICHIGAN

Michigan is a toss up. It is so close (Bush 45%, Gore 44%) that anything could happen before Tuesday. Some campaigning in this state could easily turn these eighteen electoral votes around. However, most of the campaigning will probably occur in California where there are many more votes up for grabs. For the moment, Bush is the most likely winner in Michigan. Eighteen electoral votes for Bush.

MINNESOTA

With the race running neck and neck, a definitive winning candidate is hard to choose. The most recent poll shows the two candidates tied perfectly with 38% each. History has shown Minnesota to have a relatively strong Democratic voting record. Therefore, it would not be unwise to say that Gore will get most of the 22% undecided votes. Ten electoral votes for Gore.

MISSISSIPPI

Mississippi is a very strong Republican state. Bush is currently leading the Vice President 48% to 39%. A very large percentage of its citizens consider themselves Conservative and Mississippi has demonstrated a long history of voting Republican. The winner in this state will be Bush. Seven electoral votes for Bush.

MISSOURI

In Missouri, although it is a tight race, Bush carries the lead 47% to Gore s 42%. Even though Missouri has demonstrated a shallow Democratic voting style, most people of this state view themselves as Conservatives. Bush should win Missouri. Eleven electoral votes for Bush.

MONTANA

Bush is expected to win Montana. A large number of people in this state consider themselves to be Republican, and Montana has a strong reputation for voting conservatively. With a lot of farmers in Montana, people will like Bush s plan for...

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