Surplus California Is Running A Deficit Term paper
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As California's electricity crisis unfolded, there was much talk about using the state's "surplus" to fend off high energy costs. Indeed, in recent years the surplus has been regarded as the answer to just about any social need in California. There is just one problem, evident in the governor's budget documents but ignored by the public and the Legislature. In the current fiscal year ending June 30, California is running a deficit. And the budget proposals for the next fiscal year similarly project a deficit. In common terms, a government runs a surplus when it collects more in revenue than it spends. And it runs a deficit when it spends more than it collects. In the current fiscal year, the state's general fund is projected to collect $76.9 billion and to spend $79.7 billion. That is a deficit. Next year, it is expected to take in revenue of $79.4 billion and to spend $82.9 billion. That is another deficit. Moreover, these projections are based on revenue estimates that, while assuming some slowdown, depict a California economy that largely escapes the negative forces afflicting the national economy. The state's economic planners assume that the national economy will exhibit rising unemployment in 2001 and 2002, but that California will experience falling unemployment. In contrast, the UCLA Anderson Forecast predicts that California will see rising unemployment along with the overall U.S. economy. Of course, either or both of these forecasts could be wrong. Yet California has particular vulnerabilities, and a downturn is a real possibility. Electricity is one issue. But so is the fall of the dot-coms, the disappointing stock market, which will cut into tax receipts from capital gains, and a possible strike in Hollywood. So where did all of the talk of a state surplus come from? Basically, during the late 1990s, the...
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